Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.003686 0.004034 0.004405 0.004834 0.005314 0.005839 0.006456
2025-12-07 0.003184 0.003688 0.004265 0.004982 0.005853 0.006886 0.008215
2025-12-14 0.002797 0.003360 0.004035 0.004916 0.006047 0.007468 0.009419
2025-12-21 0.002500 0.003088 0.003819 0.004810 0.006140 0.007892 0.010430
2025-12-28 0.002288 0.002894 0.003670 0.004758 0.006274 0.008358 0.011528
2026-01-04 0.002146 0.002773 0.003598 0.004791 0.006512 0.008974 0.012899
2026-01-11 0.001994 0.002623 0.003470 0.004727 0.006598 0.009369 0.013975
2026-01-18 0.001870 0.002499 0.003367 0.004685 0.006702 0.009793 0.015137
2026-01-25 0.001756 0.002382 0.003260 0.004624 0.006769 0.010155 0.016235
2026-02-01 0.001675 0.002304 0.003205 0.004635 0.006941 0.010697 0.017707
2026-02-08 0.001584 0.002206 0.003111 0.004576 0.006993 0.011042 0.018864
2026-02-15 0.001494 0.002104 0.003005 0.004487 0.006986 0.011277 0.019843
2026-02-22 0.001440 0.002056 0.002982 0.004538 0.007231 0.012008 0.021946
2026-03-01 0.001409 0.002041 0.003009 0.004675 0.007642 0.013096 0.024986
2026-03-08 0.001337 0.001958 0.002923 0.004614 0.007692 0.013508 0.026661
2026-03-15 0.001264 0.001869 0.002822 0.004516 0.007664 0.013761 0.028024
2026-03-22 0.001207 0.001802 0.002751 0.004468 0.007723 0.014192 0.029875
2026-03-29 0.001169 0.001764 0.002727 0.004498 0.007933 0.014959 0.032685
2026-04-05 0.001118 0.001701 0.002656 0.004439 0.007962 0.015343 0.034608
2026-04-12 0.001073 0.001648 0.002599 0.004400 0.008025 0.015809 0.036840
2026-04-19 0.001030 0.001593 0.002535 0.004344 0.008049 0.016187 0.038911
2026-04-26 0.000999 0.001559 0.002507 0.004353 0.008209 0.016900 0.042097
2026-05-03 0.000961 0.001510 0.002448 0.004299 0.008228 0.017278 0.044377